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The Auction Conviction Model

A Capital Discipline Framework for the Auction Watch Market.

Sergio Galanti's avatar
Sergio Galanti
Mar 08, 2026
∙ Paid

The Problem with Auction Prices

Every seasoned collector knows the feeling. The hammer falls, the room exhales, and someone has just paid a price that bears only a passing relationship to rational value. Auction houses are theaters of conviction, and conviction without structure is how capital gets destroyed.

The secondary watch market has matured dramati…

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